There is a little kingdom in the East, where the leader rules with iron fist and firm absolutism, deeply rooted into the mind of the people. Absolutism is nothing like a method of ruling in this little kingdom; it is indeed the religion, the way of life, the truth, and the source of life. Under the name of self-reliance, this kingdom has largely been cut off from the other parts of the world until 1990. This kingdom believes in the religion of Juche-ism and militarism. This kingdom, one of the most ironic nation-states of all time, is North Korea. Although absolutism in North Korea is at the level of religion, with its aging ruler, Kim Jong-il, multiple possible successors are throwing their hats into the ring.
Various sources have said that Kim Jong-eun, one of Kim Jong-il’s sons, would succeed Kim Jong-il, and this claim has been more or less confirmed by increased publicity for Kim Jong-eun. For example, a large-scale firework on Kim Il-sung’s birthday was accredited to Kim Jong-eun. In addition, Kim Jong-eun was sighted multiple times with Kim Jong-il in some of his overseeing trips to military units and factories. It is also heard that the military, probably the most important factor in deciding the successor, is supporting Kim Jong-eun. However, recent news about North Korean power structure also tells an interesting story. One of Kim Jong-il’s most trusted advisors is his sister’s husband, Jang Seong-taek. Kim Jong-il’s trust in his sister is exceptional. Although Kim Jong-il has sacked Jang, too, but that can be understood as his method of controlling his subjects: sacking and calling back again in order to ensure loyalty and fear. That Jang might be coming into the game of succession. Jang, having served Kim Jong-il for a long time, also has enormous influence inside North Korean politics, probably more than Kim Jong-eun, who stayed outside the country for the most of his education, has.
Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-eun are quite different. Kim Jong-il was deliberately trained to succeed the throne from the 70s, and Kim Il-sung meticulously prepared his son for the job by letting him gain enough experience in various fields. Kim Jong-eun never had that kind of luxury. His youth is his strength, but it may not look so attractive to other old leaders of North Korea. In contrast, Jang, although aged, has a lot of experience and Kim Jong-il’s trust. Kim Jong-il may change his mind, or Jang’s allies might overturn Kim Jong-il’s decision after his death (unlike Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il does not have his godly characteristics; hence, it is easier for people to overturn his decisions). Internal struggle that can rival the one that North Korea went through right after the Korean War might take place. Moreover, any struggle will not just end inside the country. Immense interest China has in North Korea is no secret; South Korea’s desire to reunify is not even necessary to be mentioned; Japan’s interest to stop or at least slow down China’s growth and desire to eliminate dangerous North Korean missiles would mean that Japan would be desperately trying to have some say in the future of North Korea; Russia and the United States would also get involved, whether voluntarily or not, since North Korea issue seriously affects their national securities. Armed conflict is not out of calculation.
Violence is probably less likely; more likely, Jang and Kim Jong-eun would strike a deal to divide the power between the two, that is, if Jang actually decides to go against Kim Jong-il’s heir, possibly putting Kim Jong-eun in a nominally higher position. Important stuff is the events that would take place after the succession. In a society such as North Korea where absolute power has taken place for a long time, it might be bit of a shock to the populous when their leader, presumably invincible and whatnot, dies. This is exactly why Kim Jong-il pulled off his policy of propaganda saying he is following the legacy of Kim Il-sung. Will the same trick work on North Koreans this time? Maybe not. Same trick wears off after time, and sources have repeatedly reported that North Koreans are showing resentment toward Kim’s regime. Hence, Kim Jong-eun’s regime would probably rely on fear and external threat (whether made up or real) rather than reverence from the people in order to retain the status and power. External threat is plenty in the turbulent situation in Northeastern Asia. Traditional internal control through exaggerated self-importance and external threat will not only continue but also increase and become extreme over time.
Jang is currently not showing any sign of opposition against Kim Jong-eun. Things will get onto overdrive after Kim Jong-il dies. There are many possibilities: Jang, opposition from the part of the military, Kim Jong-nam (who has close ties to Chinese government officials and openly showed his opposition to succession), and external factors. The situation might be resolved peacefully, but this is a bomb that can go off any time. The box of Pandora is waiting to be opened in a matter of time. The seriousness of this revelation is nothing superficial; countries, policymakers, and peoples should better get ready to respond to every possible scenario that might take place.
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