Monday, October 25, 2010

Hu’s the President of China. Xi’s the (next) President of China?

On October 18, 2010 Xi Jingping, who already held positions as the Vice President of the People’s Republic of China and Principal of the Central Party School, was appointed to be the Vice-Chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission. China-watchers interpret this move as cementing the Xi’s status as China’s leader-in-waiting. Current CCP general secretary and President, Hu Jintao, was appointed to the same senior military post three years before he took over at the paramount leader of China in 2002. The Economist reports, “This adds little to Mr Xi’s power (the armed forces will remain under Mr Hu and his generals). But it clearly signals that the party believes that Mr Xi should replace Mr Hu as general secretary in late 2012.”

Leadership transition has been a contentious issue in Chinese politics since the death of Mao, the first successful transition happened in when Hu Jintao replaced Jiang Zemin. The CCP is looking to replicate when current generation of leaders, the so called-fourth generation, retires. According to Cheng Li, an expert on Chinese leadership politics at the Brookings Institution, “The 18th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012 will select a new Politburo and Standing Committee. The members of these two supreme leadership bodies will concurrently occupy the top positions of all other important Party, government, and military organizations.

So who is Xi Jinping? Xi is a “princeling”, his father, Xi Zhongxun, a revolutionary guerrilla commander who served as deputy prime minister under Mao and who later supported Hu Jintao’s rise through the CCP ranks and shepherded the spectacular success of Shenzhen. However, far from riding on the laurels of his father’s success, Xi Jinping has forged a distinguished career in the CCP. Xi was responsible for the successful execution of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Prior to his promotion to the Politburo Standing Committee, Xi served as the party chief of Zhejiang province and of Shanghai.

His reputation as a liberal reformer and his tough stance on corruption makes Xi an appealing candidate to domestic and international audiences. According to Cheng Li “Xi has leadership experience in economic administration and favors pro-market reforms. In the provinces that he ran, Xi was particularly noted for his promotion of the private sector. His likely policy priorities lie in enhancing economic efficiency and promoting market liberalization, continuing China's high rates of GDP growth, and expanding China's integration into the world economy.” Former Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yue said of Xi: "I would put him in the Nelson Mandela class of persons. A person with enormous emotional stability who does not allow his personal misfortunes or sufferings affect his judgment. In other words, he is impressive." Yet despite these testimonials relatively little about Xi’s policy orientation is known, like Hu before him, Xi has kept a low public profile and rarely speaks to reporters. So China watchers will be scrutinizing Xi intensely over the next two years to discern the direction he will steer China in 2012.

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